Free Pick | MLB | Sunday | Sep. 3

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#929 Baltimore Orioles (Flaherty) +120 over Arizona Diamondbacks (Gallen) 3:10 PM CT

In splitting the first two games of the series Baltimore has a 19-10 edge in at-bats with runners in scoring position. After mostly coming up empty on Friday, the Orioles delivered a 7-3 win on Saturday, posting an 11-5 edge in hits. Arizona had to use four relievers to follow rookie Slade Cecconi yesterday and they will lean heavily on Zac Gallen Sunday. Still the NL Cy Young favorite, Gallen owns an impressive 1.79 ERA at home this season, but he has not been all that sharp since the All-Star break with a 3.93 ERA and 11 home runs allowed in 55 innings after allowing nine in over 118 innings before the break. Gallen was tagged for six runs in his last start and has allowed three or more runs seven times in his last 12 starts. Baltimore’s lineup is batting .304 with 7.0 runs per nine in the past 10 games vs. right-handers as this will be one of Gallen’s most difficult home matchups of the season. Arizona also has a 5.45 bullpen ERA in the past 10 games in great contrast to Baltimore, with the Orioles sporting a 2.45 ERA in the past 10 games with foes batting .186 against. Arizona has failed to top four runs in five straight games and the overall profile for the Diamondbacks remains suspicious sitting at -23 in scoring while four games over .500. Arizona is just 32-45 vs. winning teams as well. Jack Flaherty has a career ERA of 3.50 at Chase Field and while he has not pitched exceptionally well since joining the Orioles, he has drawn difficult matchups in three of four games. He made a solid start in his ballpark in his final start for the Cardinals and he should be able to pitch well enough to keep Baltimore in this game to the late innings where the Orioles will have a clear advantage. Gallen hasn’t pitched past six innings in four of his last six starts and Arizona is only 3-6 in his last nine starts. Baltimore has the second best record in baseball and won’t often draw this type of plus-money pricing.