Free Pick | MLB | Tuesday | May 6

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#927 Houston Astros (Wesneski) +100 over Milwaukee Brewers (Patrick) 6:40 PM CT

Yordan Alvarez was placed on the IL just before yesterday’s series opener in Milwaukee and despite having nine hits, the Astros managed only one run last night in a 5-1 defeat to the Brewers. Milwaukee used four relievers while Houston used just two as Houston got a quality start from Ronel Blanco despite the loss. Jared Koenig has now pitched in back-to-back games while Abner Uribe and Nick Mears have both pitched in two of the past three days as there will be some bullpen strain heading into Tuesday’s game. Rookie Chad Patrick has a 2.87 ERA in seven appearances for Milwaukee, but his FIP is significantly higher and he has been fortunate stranding nearly 84 percent of his baserunners. Patrick had a 14-1 record in AAA last season, but he has been far from dominant at the MLB level with a 7.5 K/9 and just one quality start in six tries. He has taken the loss in his past three starts and labored through his start on Thursday, throwing 102 pitches without completing six innings in an 8-0 loss to the White Sox. Milwaukee is 11-6 at home to command a slight favorite price Tuesday but Hayden Wesneski has provided more upside at the MLB level so far. Wesneski pitched well in his opportunities for the Cubs last season and has excellent strikeout and walk numbers in 28 innings in 2025. He has allowed six home runs already this season, but he has also faced a very difficult path of opposing lineups so far this season. Houston’s bullpen has been far stronger than Milwaukee’s this season with the Astros featuring a 2.95 bullpen ERA with opponents batting .207 against them, while Milwaukee’s bullpen has struggled with a 4.75 season ERA and even worse numbers in the past five games with a 5.48 ERA. Five runs yesterday was the most the Brewers have scored in the past five games while Houston had scored at least three runs in seven consecutive games before being unable to plate most baserunners last night. In the past five games Milwaukee is batting just .172 with 1.9 runs per nine vs. right-handers, Houston in contrast is batting .290 in those matchups.