Free Pick | NBA | Friday | April 12

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#574 Miami Heat -14.5 over Toronto Raptors 7:10 PM CT

This is certainly an inflated price but the Raptors are in the #6 position in the draft lottery while holding a top-six protected pick. Toronto did put together two wins last week but those are the only two wins for the team since March 3 for a 2-17 run with losses by double-digit margins frequent. Miami has turned in an underwhelming regular season coming after playing in the NBA Finals last June but the Heat have the Raptors twice in a row at home to close the season and the Heat can only move up from the current #8 position. Orlando and Philadelphia play tonight while Indiana and Cleveland play tonight as some of the teams that the Heat are chasing will lose to perhaps open a window to at least move up to the #7 position as Miami will have some incentive tonight, if not also on Sunday. Miami has dialed up its play in recent weeks with a 5-3 run with two of the losses by slim margins vs. quality teams. Miami has five wins by double-digit margins in the past 10 games as well. Terry Rozier and Duncan Robinson may not play tonight but the Raptors may not have Gary Trent, Jr. or Bruce Brown. The Heat have the #2 ranked defensive efficiency in the NBA in the past 10 games while holding the #5 overall net efficiency in that span. Toronto is dead last in the NBA in the past 10 games for net efficiency as the Heat should have the potential to pull away Friday night.