Free Pick | NBA | Monday | Dec. 18

#515 Dallas Mavericks +7.5 over Denver Nuggets 8:10 PM CT

Dallas has won five of the past six games with only a loss to the Western Conference leading Timberwolves. This is an opportunity for the Mavericks to prove their ascension against the defending champions, particularly after losing by 11 in early November in Denver. Dallas sits just above the Nuggets in the standings right now and the Mavericks own a 9-4 road record. Neither Dallas nor Denver has a scoring differential congruent with the record as both teams have overachieved to a degree, but the Nuggets have particularly struggled against quality competition, going 5-8 vs. top 10 teams and 8-10 vs. top 16 teams. Denver is 10-2 at home but took a loss Saturday to Oklahoma City and lost to Houston last week at home, losing two of the past three home games S/U. A road-heavy recent schedule has taken a toll, and the Nuggets are just 3-4 in the past seven games and a taxing schedule is ahead this week with a three-game eastern trip after this game ahead of next Monday’s high-profile Christmas Day game with the Warriors back in Denver. The Nuggets and Mavericks are both likely to be shorthanded tonight with this line already accounting for Kyrie Irving and Josh Green being out, but Tim Hardaway and Derrick Jones are starting caliber players whereas Denver’s depth may be less promising if Jamal Murray, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, or Aaron Gordon wind up not playing which seems to be a possibility as of Monday morning.

Nelly’s is hitting 63% so far in the NBA season including winning Saturday & Sunday in the NBA last weekend!

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