Free Pick | NCAA | Friday | March 20

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#759 Queens +25.5 over Purdue 6:35 PM CT

Purdue won four Big Ten tournament games in four days last week to rise in stature, resembling the team that led the preseason polls to start the season. Purdue was rewarded handsomely with a #2 seed thanks to none of the other candidates for that spot stepping up in the conference tournament week. The Boilermakers still are a team that closed the season going just 6-7 in the final 13 Big Ten regular season games and before the run in Chicago, Purdue produced one win in regulation vs. a NCAA Tournament team from January 17 to March 7. Maybe things have suddenly clicked for the Boilermakers, but the Big Ten tournament path was favorable, catching a slumping Nebraska squad, then a short-handed UCLA team. Purdue played terrific in the Big Ten final but a Michigan squad with clear physical advantages was granted only six free throw attempts in an unevenly called game as Michigan had a rebounding edge and only seven turnovers. Purdue isn’t likely to be at risk for an upset loss, though Matt Painter does have a track record for struggling in the Round of 64 or against mid-majors. Purdue won by only 12 vs. High Point last season while the Boilermakers famously lost as a #1 seed to Fairleigh Dickinson in the 2023 Tournament. Purdue also lost to Saint Peter’s in the Sweet 16 of the 2022 Tournament and lost to North Texas as a #4 seed in the 2021 Tournament even while playing in Indianapolis. This year’s team doesn’t have the elite defensive profile that the national runner-up team from 2024 had, and Painter has been a top 6 seed in now 14 NCAA Tournaments with only one Final Four appearance. In the program’s first NCAA Tournament appearance, Queens could be categorized as a team that is happy to be there, but the Royals took on a formidable non-conference schedule facing several major conference teams. Some of those games resulted in blowout losses but Grant Leonard’s squad grew from there and has an offensive profile that is appealing in the heavy underdog role. Queens has an effective field goal rate of nearly 57 percent with strong shooting results at every level, and the Royals have a very low turnover rate. The defense will struggle in this matchup, but Queens has good size for an Atlantic Sun team. Since January 7, Purdue is 2-13 ATS as a favorite of 5.5 or more as this is a team that has been greatly overvalued all season. After showing a glimpse of championship potential in Chicago last week this is an inflated price for a Boilermakers team that has very few of the traditional markers for being a championship contender despite its seeding.