Free Pick | NCAA | Friday | Nov. 13

Nelly’s has posted back-to-back basketball wins the past two days and we’re on a 69% college football run since late October – while going 2-1 or better in 11 of our last 15 2/3 offers!

#845 Ohio +19 over Purdue 6:00 PM CT

Purdue has won four of the past seven in this series despite the large line and contrasting recent results and reputations for these programs. At 7-2 Iowa remains in the Big Ten race, winning at Northwestern last week albeit while facing a backup quarterback.  A rather favorable schedule remains as the Hawkeyes are a serious threat to reach 10-2, which could land them in the Big Ten championship game if there are losses for the other teams in contention. At #15 in the current CFP rankings, there might be a path for Iowa without a Big Ten title shot but a closer look at the win column reveals minimal substance with the win over Wisconsin likely the only possible win against a top 25 CFP team by season’s end. Iowa has scored 30 or fewer points in six of nine games this season as covering a heavy favorite spread can still be a challenge for this group, though quarterback play behind Hank Brown has been stronger since his return. Purdue fired its defensive coordinator last week after a third straight defeat while allowing 31 or more points in three straight games. After solid wins over Illinois and Minnesota a breakthrough season has faded but this is a greatly improved Purdue team compared to the recent history of the program. The remaining schedule is quite difficult for the 3-6 Boilermakers, but this group has competed well on the road, Scoring 38 at UCLA now looks like a very impressive result while winning in Champaign is a result that has also grown in worth. While the record has leveled out somewhat in recent years, Iowa is just 22-36 ATS as a favorite of 14 or more points since 2006. Purdue is on a 19-9 ATS run as a double-digit road underdog since 2014.