Free Pick | NCAA Saturday | Dec. 3

Free Pick Saturday: #323 Purdue +17 over Michigan 7:00 PM CT

Purdue last beat Michigan back in 2009 but it is only a four-game winning streak for the Wolverines and this will be just the second meeting since 2012. This hasn’t felt like Jeff Brohm’s best team at 8-4 compared with last season’s 9-4 squad but the mediocrity in the Big Ten West has allowed the Boilermakers to earn a spot in the Big Ten Championship for the first time. This will be the first time that a team from Indiana is playing in the Big Ten Championship game that has always been held in Indiana since it started in 2011. After last season’s breakthrough win over Ohio State, Michigan showed no signs of a letdown eventually winning 42-3 against Iowa in the Big Ten Championship, though 21 points were added in the fourth quarter. Last week’s 45-23 final was misleading as it was a one-score game at two points in the fourth quarter Michigan allowed 492 yards while benefitting from two turnovers and a 91-30 edge in penalty yards. Michigan struggled with Illinois in the prior week and last week’s 45-point performance was not the norm in the Big Ten season as the second highest output in the 9-0 run. Purdue’s path to 6-3 opened with a loss in the season opener vs. Penn State, a game Purdue easily could have won. The rest of the Big Ten East draw was favorable avoiding Michigan and Ohio State and Purdue went just 2-2 vs. the other top four teams in the division. Purdue did win at Minnesota and at Illinois for impressive road results vs. quality defensive teams. A saw storyline with this game is that Aidan O’Connell left campus following the death of his brother, he is expected to return and play in the game but may not have a usual week of practice. Michigan is 11-6 ATS as a double-digit favorite the past two seasons while Purdue is 7-2 ATS as a double-digit underdog under Jeff Brohm. Purdue has featured a decent run defense this season and has allowed just 4.4 yards per play the past three games for its best defensive stretch of the season. Michigan has allowed 5.1 yards per play in that span and the offensive numbers are similar with both teams playing Illinois in that span but Ohio State providing an obvious edge in strength of schedule in that comparison for Michigan.

Nelly’s has a 7* for Championship Saturday – we hit 60% last week in college football and won a 7* by three touchdowns!