Free Pick | NCAA | Saturday | Feb. 21

Nelly’s won last night in college hoops – get a 2/3 offer for Saturday!

#706 Arkansas -9.5 over Missouri 3 PM CT
John Calipari led Arkansas to the Sweet 16 last year in his first season in Fayetteville and this year’s team has rated stronger in just about every way. The Razorbacks have an elite offense, and this isn’t a team that is reliant on 3-point shooting. On Wednesday Arkansas missed a great opportunity for a high-quality road win at Alabama, falling in a wild 117-115 result in double-overtime. Arkansas has 11 top 100 wins this season and in going 9-4 in SEC play the Razorbacks have gone 5-1 S/U at home with at least 77 points scored in each game, including wins over Tennessee and Vanderbilt. Arkansas has the #1 offensive efficiency in the ultra-tough SEC and two thirds of the conference wins for the Razorbacks have come by double-digit margins. In a fight for its NCAA Tournament life, Missouri delivered a massive win hosting Vanderbilt on Wednesday. The Tigers are 4-1 S/U in the past five games, but only own four S/U road wins all season, one of which was the season opener outside the nation’s top 200. Arkansas is 13-1 S/U at home while 18-8 ATS overall this season. Missouri is near the bottom of the SEC in turnovers and free throw shooting results on offense, which is a major problem as those missed opportunities can be afforded in trying to keep pace with the incredibly efficient offense for the Razorbacks. Arkansas is 8-2 S/U and 7-3 ATS in the past 10 meetings between these teams and given the up-tempo pace and scoring trajectory for Arkansas, this double-digit spread is likely attainable as the Razorbacks can’t afford another defeat in the SEC race given the tight pack behind Florida in the standings. Missouri is in a dangerous spot following a huge result in the last game, with that 81-80 result featuring a 25-14 edge in made free throws and 50 percent 3-point shooting.