Free Pick | NCAA | Saturday | Oct. 3

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#162 Rice +13 over UTSA 6:00 PM CT

Rice upset the Roadrunners in 2024, and UTSA made sure to remember it in last season’s blowout at home. This year the setting changes. This is the AAC opener for both teams, and it’s in Houston. UTSA is 3-1 and Rice is 1-3, with the Owls’ only win coming against FCS Houston Christian but case can be made that Rice’s record looks much worse than its play. Outside an understandable 52-0 loss to Notre Dame, the Owls lost 28-21 to Western Michigan and led Fresno State 17-14 at halftime before falling 38-24 on the road, with those two teams looking like solid Group of 6 squads. UTSA scored 59 points last week, but it also gave up 45 to a Colorado State program in a major transition season. The Roadrunners have hit the under on their team total in six straight road games as there has been a big disparity in the offensive success away from the Alamodome. Rice brings something UTSA won’t see often as in his second season, Scott Abell has built a run-first offense that ran for 344 yards at Fresno. Quarterback Jacurri Brown ran for 141 yards and became the first Owl since 2019 to post back-to-back 100-yard rushing games. Freshman Ben Grice added 109 yards on seven carries, including an 88-yard touchdown. Brown and Grice were Rice’s first pair of 100-yard rushers in the same game since 2011. UTSA’s Owen McCown leads a capable offense, but a defense that just gave up 45 points will have to deal with an unusual option-style attack on short preparation. Rice can rush successfully and shorten the game against the UTSA defense, which limits possessions and makes a double-digit margin harder to reach. Rice’s passing game is a weakness, and the Owls aren’t a great play from behind team of things go poorly early, but the UTSA defense looks more likely be involved in games with scores being traded. Rice is a home underdog with a great opportunity to produce a significant rushing advantage in this pairing for what is a favorable ATS situation historically.