Free Pick | NCAA | Sunday | Jan. 4

Nelly’s is 9-0 in our last nine football picks with a 4-0 NFL run and a 5-0 bowl run! Don’t miss Sunday’s regular season finale pick!

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#827 Illinois-Chicago +3.5 over Valparaiso 2:00 PM CT

Illinois Chicago has started 0-3 in MVC play but they faced Belmont, Northern Iowa, and Murray State and all of those defeats were competitive games, losing by 3, 6, and 4 points. Those are three of the top four rated teams in the MVC this season for a difficult opening run to start league play. The Flames are only 5-9 overall this season and don’t have a quality win of any sort, but close defeats have been the norm even with five top 100 games already played. Illinois Chicago does have two wins away from home and Rob Ehsan’s team was competitive going 10-10 in MVC play in his first season with the program last year. Valparaiso has also had a tough path to start 0-3 in MVC play and the Beacons last won a Division I game on November 29. Valparaiso has some of the nation’s worst shooting rates hitting just over 28 percent from 3-point range and just over 45 percent from 2-point range. The non-conference schedule for Valparaiso grades in the 300s nationally as the 6-3 start didn’t carry much weight in the win column. These teams played three times last season with Illinois Chicago winning both regular season meetings, but Valparaiso won 67-50 in the MVC Tournament in St. Louis as this is a matchup the Flames should be ready for. That was simply a nightmare shooting game for Illinois Chicago who made only 17 of 57 field goals. Illinois Chicago won in Valparaiso 81-74 last January and the Flames are 6-3 S/U in the past nine meetings in this series while playing as a two-point favorite in last season’s road meeting. Valparaiso turned over its roster considerably and is one of the least experienced teams in the MVC while Illinois Chicago has a nice mix of veterans and talented newcomers. The recent slide isn’t appealing for the Flames, but the schedule has been difficult with four of the past five losses vs. top 100 teams and Illinois Chicago has been competitive in those defeats.  Illinois Chicago is likely to create turnovers in this matchup and lead the offensive rebounding numbers and while neither team has great shooting numbers the Flames have more reliable averages at every level through a more difficult schedule so far this season.