Free Pick | NCAA | Wed. March 11

Nelly’s is 19-5 in First Four and Round of 64 Tournament picks the past four seasons!

#665 Oklahoma State +6 over TCU 8:30 PM CT

Oklahoma State showed some fight to win last night vs. Colorado, rallying back from an early deficit to advance. Oklahoma State had 20 more points at the free throw line than Colorado as the game was not called evenly, and Oklahoma State won while shooting worse than Colorado from 2-point range and 3-point range for a fortunate result. This is a matchup that the Cowboys will be ready for however as both regular season losses to TCU came by three points in very tight games. TCU has won eight of the past nine games and has done enough to feel secure about a NCAA Tournament bid, mostly thanks to a November win over Florida that has grown in stature. In Big XII play TCU picked up wins over Iowa State and Texas Tech down the stretch, but this is also a team that lost to Notre Dame, Utah, Colorado, and UCF this season. TCU’s Big XII schedule grades as the #16 strength of schedule compared to the fourth toughest path for Oklahoma State as the Cowboys played Iowa State twice while TCU played Kansas State twice for the biggest difference in the schedules between these teams. Oklahoma State is the better 3-point shooting team while five percent better at the free throw line, with TCU ranking last in the Big XII in effective field goal rate. The recent injuries impact the size edge Oklahoma State would normally enjoy in this pairing, but TCU has the smallest roster in the Big XII. Another close game between these teams looks likely and having some momentum with last night’s win could give the underdog Cowboys a good shot to continue a run in Kansas City.