Free Pick | NCAA | Wednesday | Feb. 18

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#744 Illinois State -1.5 over Murray State 8:00 PM CT

Illinois State is just 9-7 in conference play including a recent run of alternating wins and losses in the past eight games. The Redbirds should be sharp tonight after suffering a humiliating blowout loss on Sunday, losing 83-56 at Illinois Chicago. Illinois State has just two home losses all season and they came by four points each, including an overtime loss. The Redbirds have home wins over Bradley and Northern Iowa and Ryan Pedon’s squad is a top five rated offense and defense in the conference, even with a modest 9-7 league record to sit in sixth place in the current standings. Murray State is 11-6 in league play but after starting 8-0 on a favorable path filled with close wins, the Racers are just 3-6 since. The up-tempo offense has stalled in several recent games including averaging just 68 points per game in the past three games, including two home games. Murray State does have five road wins in league play but is just 2-3 S/U in the past five road games and is 0-3 S/U in road games vs. top 100 teams this season, including allowing over 100 points in two of those games. The gap in the defensive numbers greatly favors Illinois State while the Redbirds are also the stronger 3-point shooting team. Murray State does take good care of the ball and shoots well at the free throw line but in Murray State’s home loss in this series, Illinois State had a rebounding edge and a 3-point shooting edge to make up for those deficits. In that 70-65 win in late January Boden Skunberg didn’t play, as a nearly 43 percent 3-point shooter and a veteran leader. Chase Walker missed the last game for Illinois State with a hamstring issue that knocked him out of the previous game on February 12, but all indications are that the junior center will be in the lineup tonight.