Free Pick | NFL | Sunday | Nov. 12

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#253 Tennessee Titans +2.5 over Tampa Bay Buccaneers 12:00 PM CT

Under Mike Vrabel the Titans are 29-20-1 ATS as an underdog and that includes three S/U wins and four ATS wins this season. While the Titans are in last place in the AFC South, they are 3-5 and still in the running in a crowded AFC picture where 5-3 makes the playoffs right now. Tennessee is only -12 in net scoring differential and the Titans have four one-score losses. Tennessee has an extended break ahead of this game after playing on Thursday in Week 9 and while he has only two games of data points, rookie Will Levis has looked the part of an NFL quarterback, and he has a QB Rating nearly 25 points better than Ryan Tannehill had to dramatically upgrade the potential of the Titans on offense. Derrick Henry remains one of the top running backs in the NFL and the Tennessee defense is 11th in the NFL in scoring defense as this is a difficult team to pull away from. Tampa Bay was a nice story in the first month of the season, but the Buccaneers have lost four straight games to also sit at 3-5. The path to the playoffs in the NFC may be more favorable for Tampa Bay but the Buccaneers are just 1-3 S/U at home and Tampa Bay is the third worst yards per play defense in the NFL right now allowing 5.8 yards per play. In the past three games that average is 6.8, dead last in the league in that span. Baker Mayfield has decent numbers in his comeback season, but his QBR has been below 45 in three of his last four games despite a season QBR of 56.4. Tampa Bay has failed to top 18 points in four of the past six games and a struggling defense was on the field a great deal last week in the back-and-forth shootout in Houston. Tennessee has appeal getting points in a favorable scheduling spot even if the Titans are yet to win a road game this season.