Free Pick | Sunday | NCAA | Feb. 11

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Nelly’s won our 7* yesterday with Arizona State winning outright as a +12 underdog as a strong run in basketball continues!

We’ll look to close a great NFL season with a Super Bowl win as well!

#848 Northwestern -8 over Penn State 12:00 PM CT

Northwestern’s slow pace leads to some reluctance with supporting the Wildcats in the favorite role but the three of past five Big Ten home wins for the Wildcats have come by 12 or more points. Northwestern is 6-0 S/U at home in the Big Ten even while already facing the league’s three best teams in Evanston, beating Purdue, Michigan State, and Illinois. Northwestern is only 7-5 in the Big Ten standings, but they have two overtime losses and have played the league’s toughest schedule so far having faced Purdue and Illinois twice each already. Penn State has won three in a row including a convincing home win on Thursday as the Nittany Lions have reached 6-6 in conference play. None of the past three wins stand out as high-quality results while the big mid-January win over Wisconsin has lost significant value with the Badgers collapsing the past two weeks. Penn State has gone 2-4 S/U on the road in the Big Ten and three of those losses came by 12 or more points. Penn State also went 0-4 in non-conference games away from home with three of those four losses by 10 or more points. Northwestern’s defense is better than the numbers suggest as the Big Ten path has been incredibly difficult in contrast to Penn State’s 6-6 Big Ten record, facing just two games vs. the league’s top three teams in contrast to five such games for Northwestern. The Wildcats won by only four at Penn State in January in a comeback result, but Penn State had a big free throw and offensive rebounding edge, while the Wildcats uncharacteristically had 18 turnovers, despite having one of the nation’s lowest turnover rates. Expect that figure to bounce back to the season norms for the Wildcats and with a 3-point shooting rate 11 percent stronger than Penn State, Northwestern could pull away in this game.