Free Pick | Sunday | NCAA | Feb. 15

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#821 Fairfield +4.5 over Saint Peter’s 1:00 PM CT

Fairfield fell to Saint Peter’s at home in late December, dropping to 0-3 in Metro Atlantic play. The Stags would lose again in the first game of 2026 to start 0-4 but the team has rallied to win eight of the past 11 games, now above .500 in league play and sporting three road wins in Metro Atlantic play. Fairfield has a very low turnover rate, strong rebounding results, and decent shooting numbers to emerge as one of the better offensive teams in the conference, on pace for substantial improvement from last season’s 12-20 campaign. Saint Peter’s has not lost a home game in Metro Atlantic play, but the Peacocks have played the #12 ranked schedule in the conference at this point. Saint Peter’s has filled its 11-4 Metro Atlantic record with close wins and Bashir Mason’s squad is the worst 3-point shooting team in the conference, hitting below 30 percent beyond the arc. Saint Peter’s lost at Sacred Heart on Friday and lost in early February to Rider, a 3-17 team at the bottom of the conference as the Peacocks have provided recent inconsistency. The quality wins over Merrimack and Quinnipiac for the Peacocks came over a month ago and in the first meeting between these teams Saint Peter’s was much stronger at the free throw line and had a turnover edge to rally from an early double-digit deficit. Saint Peter’s had an 11-1 run in the final five minutes to flip that result. Fairfield has won S/U in two of the past three trips to Jersey City and given the contrasting ATS marks for these teams, many will flock to support the Peacocks and a strong home record at small favorite price. Fairfield is 5-1 S/U in the past six games including two S/U underdog upsets and the Stags have some positive momentum heading into this revenge spot, and quality shots should come a bit easier for the road team in this pairing with clear shooting result edges inside and out in comparing these teams.