Free Pick | Sunday | NCAA | March 10

#812 Indiana +3.5 over Michigan State 3:30 PM CT

Michigan State is 10-9 in Big Ten play and will be a NCAA Tournament team next week. The Spartans played a rather weak Big Ten schedule however and statistically lack an impressive profile, ranking as a middle-of-the-pack offense, and just a slightly above-average defense. The 3-point shooting numbers are excellent, but this isn’t a high-volume outside shooting team. Michigan State does have three Big Ten road wins, but they came against three of the bottom teams in the conference and this finale in Bloomington could be a difficult spot to close the season after the Spartans clinched at least a .500 conference campaign on Wednesday. It has been too little, too late for Indiana but the Hoosiers have three straight wins after a run of narrow losses. Finishing at 10-10 with four straight wins would be a nice accomplishment and this is a matchup that should draw the team’s full attention. Indiana has terrific size on this year’s team and the conference draw was one of the toughest in the Big Ten. Indiana is more than five percent better than Michigan State on two-point shots and has been a top three Big Ten defense against the 3-point shot. Turnovers are likely to slightly favor Michigan State but the Spartans have been less reliable in those numbers on the road. Indiana is 3-1 S/U in the past four meetings in this series while the Spartans have only three road wins all season.