Nelly’s | Free Pick | MLB | May 12

Nelly’s went 2-0 last night with MLB & NBA wins!

#975 Miami Marlins (Perez) -105 over Minnesota Twins (Ober) 6:40 PM CT

Bailey Ober projected as a solid rotation depth piece for the future of the Twins with solid results from 2022-24. He struggled greatly over his 27 starts last season and he hasn’t improved so far in 2026. Ober has a 4.19 ERA, but an even higher FIP, and he has a career worst 6.7 K/9 at this point in the season. Ober has mediocre numbers even with a career low .246 BABIP in 43 innings as he has been fortunate to not have even worse results. Minnesota delivered a pair of one-run wins over the weekend, but this is a 7-16 squad since April 15. In the past 10 games Minnesota has a 1.62 WHIP and a 6.11 ERA from its bullpen that has suffered a few recent injuries as Miami should have a great edge in the late innings after two similarly rated starters face off. Eury Perez has a 9.8 K/9 but he has allowed seven home runs this season. Over his last four starts he has allowed only three home runs however and in that span, and he has a 10.6 K/9 with much stronger overall numbers. Neither offense has posted great results on the season, but the Marlins are 17 points better in batting average vs. right-handers compared to the Twins. The Marlins are only 5-10 in road games this season, but the early season schedule has already included road series vs. the Dodgers, Braves, and Yankees for a difficult early path to produce that poor road record. The NL also has an edge of 26 games in interleague play at this point in the season and while that isn’t meaningful at an individual game level, the Twins are expected to be one of the AL’s worst teams overall this season.