Free Pick | MLB | Saturday | June 21

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#906 Philadelphia Phillies (Abel) -110 over New York Mets (Canning) 6:15 PM CT

The Phillies have shaken off an early June slump and are now on a 9-2 run, breaking out with 10 runs to take the first game of this series with the Mets. Philadelphia is back in first place in the NL East, leading the Mets by one game with New York now losing seven games in a row. The Mets are 27-10 at home but just 18-21 on the road this season while Philadelphia is 25-13 at home for extreme home/road splits for both teams. Philadelphia was able to get through last night’s game without using any of its top relief options and while the Mets have better season bullpen results, in the past 10 games New York has a 6.42 bullpen ERA with a 1.72 WHIP. On the seven-game slide the Mets have scored only 16 combined runs yet New York pitching has allowed at least five runs in each of those defeats. Griffin Canning has been a good pick-up for the Mets with a 3.80 ERA In 14 starts, but his high walk rate is a concern in this matchup with the Phillies offering a high walk, low strikeout roster. After a great April and a decent May, Canning is struggling in June with a 5.74 ERA and he has now allowed at least three runs in four of his last five starts. Rookie Mick Abel has stepped into the Philadelphia rotation and flourished, posting a 2.21 ERA in four starts. It won’t likely be a sustainable pace for the 2020 1st rounder, but Abel has allowed just four walks in over 20 innings and has looked the part of a solid option for the Phillies, including pitching well vs. tough lineups in the Blue Jays and Cubs. The Phillies are 37-18 vs. right-handed starters this season and in the past week Philadelphia has an .823 team OPS compared to a .590 team OPS for the Mets as in the ebbs and flows of the season the Phillies are in far better form for this huge late June series in the NL East race.