Free Pick | MLB | Tuesday | July 1

Nelly’s is 8-3 in our last 11 in MLB since June 20 as a strong season continues – winning an underdog last night!

Play Tuesday’s Interleague Knockout with Nelly’s 9-3 on Tuesdays this season.

#905 Milwaukee Brewers (Peralta) +110 over New York Mets (Holmes) 6:10 PM CT

Milwaukee hasn’t quite been able to overtake the Cubs in the competitive NL Central race but since starting the season 0-4 in March, the Brewers have put together three consecutive winning months including going 16-9 in June while outscoring foes by 41 runs.  Milwaukee is 8-2 in the past 10 games following an off day on Monday and the Brewers have won or split each of the past four road series. The Brewers have scored a minimum of three runs in 15 consecutive games as this has been a reliable offensive team despite lacking standout All-Star candidates in the lineup. The Mets went just 12-15 in June and allowed 52 more runs than Milwaukee in the month as the pitching staff has regressed considerably. The Mets are now two games back in the NL East race and Milwaukee is 17 runs stronger in season run differential following the Mets getting blown out in all three games in Pittsburgh over the weekend. Clay Holmes is 8-4 with a 2.97 ERA this season for a successful transition to a starting role but Holmes has a 4.12 FIP and has had good fortune with an 83 percent strand rate and a .262 BABIP. Holmes hasn’t matched his strikeout potential from past seasons as a reliever and while he remains a good groundball pitcher, his groundball rate is more than 11 percent lower than last season. Holmes has worse splits at Citi Field this season where seven of his 10 home runs allowed have been and his best home starts of the season were against losing teams. The Mets also own a 6.95 bullpen ERA with a 1.50 WHIP in the past 10 games. Freddy Peralta could be an All-Star for Milwaukee with a 2.90 ERA in 17 starts. His strikeout numbers are solid with a 9.5 K/9 and he has pitched at least five innings with three or fewer runs allowed in six consecutive starts. Peralta’s success is built on dominant numbers at home, but opponents are batting just .213 against him on the road. Peralta has a 1.50 career ERA at Citi Field, and this is a huge series for the Brewers with tonight being the first game against the Mets since the stunning exit in the NL Wild Card round last October, unable to hold a 2-0 9th inning lead in the elimination game.

Green Sheet Issue #5 will be out in July – here is the NFL Schedule Grid for the 2025-26 season!