Free Pick | MLB | Friday | Aug. 22

Nelly’s Baseball takes a 7-2 run into Friday’s full schedule. We’re 10-4 in our last 14 and 23-10 since mid-July!

#916 Baltimore Orioles (Povich) -110 over Houston Astros (McCullers) 6:05 PM CT

After scoring seven total runs in the prior six games combined, the Astros posted seven runs in the first three innings last night to coast to a 7-2 win to open this series in Baltimore. Even with that early lead, the Astros used three key relievers to close out the game with the shorthanded bullpen signaling desperation with the recent acquisition of Craig Kimbrel. The Astros scored seven runs with 12 hits last night, getting two big home runs and scoring four runs with two outs. Baltimore had nine hits last night but only one came with runners in scoring position. The Orioles are 40-32 since May 30 including taking a 6-2 run into the second game of this series as Baltimore is playing much better than the last place position in the AL East implies. Baltimore has gone 16-12 vs. AL West teams and has 30 home wins, just short of Houston’s 32 road wins while the Astros maintain a division lead. Lance McCullers has been an important pitcher in big spots for Houston since 2015, but he missed 2023 and 2024 with injuries and progress has been slow in his return. McCullers has a 6.90 ERA in 11 starts this season and he has been on the IL for the last month. His rehab numbers in AA and AAA look better, but his command has been disastrous overall this season with 29 walks allowed in fewer than 45 innings of work. Houston has an 8.53 ERA with a 1.68 WHIP from its bullpen in the past 10 games even with three clean innings last night and the Astros have just one six-inning starting effort in the past five games as the workload has been significant in the last week. Baltimore had Wednesday off ahead of this series and the Orioles have enjoyed good recent relief pitching results. The Astros are batting just .225 with 3.4 runs per nine vs. left-handers in the past 10 games and Cade Povich is pitching much better than his 2-6 record. He has a 10.0 K/9 and his FIP is just 3.96 this season in over 81 innings. Povich missed all of July but has made three solid starts since returning including striking out 10 Astros last week over five innings. One outburst doesn’t solve Houston’s recent offensive trajectory and Baltimore should be a threat to even this series Friday.