Free Pick | MLB | Saturday | Aug. 23

Nelly’s Baseball is on a 23-11 run since mid-July while 13-5 on Saturdays this season!

Play tonight’s TOTAL or join through the World Series:

#969/970 OVER 8.5 Houston Astros (Javier) at Baltimore Orioles (Kremer) 6:05 PM CT

After slumping for a week, the Houston offense has been awoken in Baltimore, scoring 17 runs the past two days. The conditions in Baltimore should favor offense again Saturday night, with a significant wind blowing out to left center and still warm conditions. Cristian Javier has only made two starts coming back from missing most of 2024 as well and he can’t be expected to pitch at the level he did in 2021 and 2022 for the Astros. Dean Kremer has posted a steady season line for the Orioles with good home numbers, but he doesn’t generate many strikeouts and he is a home run risk in these conditions with few ground balls when he is on the mound. He pitched great against Houston in his last start, but the Astros should have a better opportunity the second time around. Both bullpens have been strained to start this series with a combined nine relievers used in last night’s high-scoring game, a contest that featured a combined 24 at-bats with runners in scoring position. Four of five meetings this season between these teams have reached at least nine runs and another higher scoring game looks likely in these conditions. Javier is also coming off battling illness this week and he is backed up by a bullpen with an 8.31 ERA and a 1.69 WHIP in the past 10 games, facing an Orioles lineup that is batting .329 with 7.1 runs per nine in the past 10 games vs. right-handed pitching.