Free Pick | MLB | Wednesday | Sep. 10

Nelly’s Baseball is on a 32-17 run since mid-July – check out a TOTAL in daytime action today!

#976 Texas Rangers (Kelly) +115 over Milwaukee Brewers (Peralta) 1:35 PM CT

It takes some courage to call for the team with the best record in baseball to get swept, particularly with a pitcher starting for the Brewers that last allowed a run on August 5. Texas is charging in the AL playoff race however, playing with urgency on a 13-4 run since August 22. Last night’s comeback win was a great result and while Texas used six pitchers last night, the pitch counts were low and none of those five relievers pitched on Monday. Merrill Kelly has a 2.98 ERA in seven starts with the Rangers, including dominant results in his last two home starts with one run allowed in 14 innings. Freddy Peralta is having a strong season for the Brewers, but his results have been more average on the road with a 3.36 ERA, and he has allowed three or more walks in five of his last seven starts to labor through a few short outings, even while not allowing a run in his last five starts. The Brewers have been shut out twice in the past six games while going just 6-7 in the past 13 games. The lead in the NL Central is 6.5 games as there isn’t great pressure on Milwaukee right now and the team appears to be coasting a bit while battling injuries in the bullpen. Kelly has terrific career numbers vs. the Brewers with a 2.77 ERA in nine starts while this will be just the second start Peralta has made in this ballpark, where Texas is 46-28 this season. The past two games don’t justify a major shift in the price for game 3 of this series with Milwaukee now a hefty road favorite after being near-even yesterday and an underdog on Monday.