Free Pick | Sunday | NFL | Oct. 19

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#459 New Orleans Saints +4.5 over Chicago Bears 12:00 PM CT

Chicago is 3-2 but the Bears are nearly 1-4, incredibly winning the past two games by just one-point in matching 25-24 final scores. Both the Raiders and Commanders were in position to beat Chicago, but the Raiders missed a field goal and the Commanders fumbled in field goal range. Chicago has lost eight straight meetings with the Saints with the last win in 2008, and this will be the largest favorite spread for the Bears against the Saints since the 1990 season. The Saints are just 1-5 but they have faced a difficult schedule losing to four teams that are 4-2 or better. Three losses this season have been one-score finals as well. Last week New Orleans hosted New England and lost by six, but it was a rather even game statistically with a slight yards per play edge for the Saints.  Spencer Rattler is still a young quarterback gaining experience, but he has thrown only one interception his season and ranks right next to Caleb Williams in QBR this season with far less fanfare and far more pass attempts. Rattler is completing passes at nearly a seven percent stronger completion rate compared with Williams and he has offered a rushing presence as well, averaging 5.5 yards per rush attempt. New Orleans ranks seventh in the NFL in per carry run defense compared to Chicago ranking 31st as the Saints have the potential to get the ground attack going to provide the offense balance. Both teams are in coaching change seasons but the difference between these teams doesn’t appear as significant as the records and this spread suggests.