Free Pick | NCAA | Friday | Dec. 26

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#219 Central Michigan +10.5 over Northwestern 12:00 PM CT

The Wildcats aren’t bowl regulars, but Northwestern has won S/U in its last five bowl games even while only favored in two of those games. Those wins have all come against major conference teams as the Wildcats last faced a MAC team in a bowl game in a 28-24 loss to Bowling Green in 2003, also here at Ford Field in Detroit for what was then the Motor City Bowl. Central Michigan is playing close to home with a just over two hour drive from campus to Detroit while it is a reasonable trip from greater Chicago as well but given the time slot this is likely to be about a half-full stadium. Central Michigan lost 45-17 to Pittsburgh and 63-3 to Michigan in two major conference tests this season but those game were early in the season in a transition year and both of those teams finished with far better seasons than Northwestern. The Chippewas reached 7-5 but didn’t beat any fellow bowl teams on the season, though the three MAC losses all came with modest scoring allowed, surrendering 28, 24 and 21 points as Central Michigan should be able to stall the scoring pace in this contest. This is the first bowl game for Central Michigan since 2021, with the Chippewas winning the Sun Bowl vs. Washington State for the program’s first bowl win since 2012. Central Michigan has twice faced a Big Ten team in bowl action, going 0-2 but with both games decided by seven or fewer points. It was a successful first season for Matt Drinkall in Mt. Pleasant and Northwestern has often been a risky heavy favorite with the program 11-18 ATS when laying 10 or more since 2013. Central Michigan has a productive ground game that is appealing for a double-digit underdog particularly in a game with a total in the 40s and Central Michigan has surrendered just 4.0 yards per rush in the past three games. The MAC has performed well in this bowl game historically with two S/U wins and three losses all by six or fewer points in the past five instances of this bowl game. The Big Ten/MAC pairing two years ago had a line eight points lower than this week’s number as well. Since 2021 bowl underdogs of 10 to 14 points are 14-11 ATS with seven S/U wins, pulling off upsets at a much higher rate than in the regular season in that price range.