Free Pick | NCAA | Weds. | Jan. 21

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#701 Indiana State +8.5 over Bradley 6:00 PM CT

Bradley is 6-3 in Missouri Valley play including going 5-0 at home, even with Southern Illinois and Northern Iowa already visiting Peoria. The Braves will enter this game coming off an ugly loss on Saturday however, losing by 26 points at Illinois State, who may be the top team in the conference this season. Indiana State beat Illinois State last Wednesday and while Indiana State is just 2-6 in conference play they also have a win over Belmont, and the Sycamores have played a very tough league path so far. Four of six conference losses have come in overtime or by four or fewer points including the triple-overtime loss hosting Bradley in the MVC opener. Indiana State lost at Murray State on Saturday as this is a second straight road game but five of six conference wins for Bradley have come by nine or fewer points even with a favorable league path so far that includes two wins over Evansville. Indiana State is more than 10 percent better in 2-point field goal percentage this season in comparing these teams as there should be opportunities for the Sycamores to create high percentage looks to stay in this game. The defense for Indiana State grades as one of the worst units in the conference in the early snapshot but Bradley isn’t much better defensively, currently ranking 10th through a preferable schedule. This is the second season under Matthew Graves for Indiana State and while the record might not appear substantially improved, the effective field goal rate on defense has improved by nearly four percent with a great improvement in 3-point defense. Bradley won 28 games last season and retains some of that valuation, but the statistics are worse for this year’s team pretty much across the board. As a result, Bradley is just 7-12 ATS this season including 3-6 ATS in conference play. Bradley did win by 53 points in the home meeting vs. Indiana State a year ago, but the other three meetings between these teams since January 2024 each went to overtime. Indiana State has gone 5-0 ATS in games as an underdog of +6.5 to +11.5 this season and another competitive game in this series looks possible.