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#807 Arkansas Little Rock +5.5 over Tennessee State 7:30 PM CT

Little Rock lost 84-79 hosting Tennessee State on January 3 in a competitive contest with a tight finish. Tennessee State is up to 7-3 in OVC play, heading back home tonight with only one home loss on the season. The 3-1 home record in conference play has featured exclusively close calls, however, including an overtime win. The Tigers play fast but for the season have been a poor shooting team everywhere except the free throw line, though in OVC play the 3-point shooting numbers have improved dramatically compared with the full season results. Tennessee State grades as just the 8th best defense in the conference for first year head coach Nolan Smith, however. Little Rock is 6-3 in OVC play but will enter this game off a loss, falling a week ago at Southeast Missouri. The Trojans have four road wins on the season and have been a top three OVC offense in most key areas, as a good shooting team with a low turnover rate. A difficult non-conference schedule led to a 2-8 start to the season but that included six top 200 losses including facing Big East and Big XII teams. Little Rock has been a top two turnover rate team on both sides of the ball in OVC play and is a top five 3-point shooting percentage team on both sides of the ball as well. Tennessee State has won four of the past six in this series, but all four wins have been by a single-digit margin, and this will be the largest Tennessee State spread in this series since at least 2018. The Tigers are 1-4 ATS in the past five OVC games while Little Rock is 4-1 ATS in the past five games and another close game like the meeting earlier this month seems like the most likely scenario Thursday.