Free Pick | NCAA | Monday | March 2

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#871 Weber State +4.5 over Portland State 9 PM CT

Portland State leads the Big Sky with a 12-5 record heading into the regular season finale tonight. A win gives the Vikings the outright Big Sky title while a loss creates a possible tiebreaker with Eastern Washington and/or Montana State that Portland State is likely to lose and fall to the #3 position, a substantial difference with byes only for the top two in the Big Sky tournament. The Vikings were once 11-1 in Big Sky play, however, as this team has failed already in several opportunities to confirm the top spot in the conference, going just 1-4 in the past five games including a home loss. Three of those four recent losses have come by double-digit margins as the great start in league play was in part due to a favorable schedule with most of the toughest games backloaded into February. Portland State won in Ogden against Weber State back on New Year’s Day for the Big Sky opener, but it was an overtime result. Portland State owns the worst offensive efficiency in the Big Sky this season but wound up shooting 43 percent while making 12 3-point shots in the road in that game. Weber State shot below 27 percent beyond the arc and missed 13 free throws. Weber State is 10-7 in Big Sky play but rates as one of the best offensive teams in the conference and the Wildcats are 5-1 in the past six games including wins over Idaho, Montana State, and Montana. That run includes a pair of road wins as well. This has been a rather even series with Weber State 5-4 S/U and 4-5 ATS in the past nine meetings since the 2021-22 season while five of those games have been by single-digit margins including the past two meetings going to overtime in January and decided by two points last February. Weber State is 5-3 ATS in Big Sky road games and 3-1 ATS this season in conference play when dogged by three or more points. Looking at the Big Sky numbers Weber State is likely to have a turnover edge in this matchup and a 3-point shooting edge and in a close game down the stretch the Wildcats are much more likely to find a high-percentage shot even though Portland State does have a height edge on the roster. That size edge is due to Tre-Vaughn Minott who can be a free throw liability while the starting five for Weber State has three players with stronger free throw percentages than every Portland State starter.