Free Pick | NBA | Friday | March 27

Nelly’s has a Sweet 16 total tonight – 1-0 in tournament totals and 7-3 since 2022 in the Sweet 16!

#519/520 Utah Jazz at Denver Nuggets 8:10 PM CT

Denver is an extreme ‘over’ team in road games, but totals have been close to even in Denver, and the ‘under’ is 7-4 in the past 11 Denver home games since early February. Denver won 135-112 to stay ‘under’ on a total of 251.5 in Utah’s last trip to Denver in December. The ‘under’ is 20-15 in Utah road games this season as while the Jazz defense is often a disaster, the offense has been held to 114 or fewer points in seven of the past eight road games. This is going to be one of the highest totals of the season for a Utah road game even though three of the past four Jazz games finished at 243 or lower. Denver is in a tight grouping in the Western Conference playoff race sitting in the #4 position but just 1.5 games from #3 while only 2.0 games ahead of #6 as there is some urgency for the Nuggets down the stretch. Denver is coming off a high-scoring home win vs. Dallas on Wednesday but Denver shot 56 percent in that game with 19 made 3-point shot at a 50 percent rate. Utah’s defense can certainly allow similar numbers, but that game also featured only 13 combined turnovers and 63 combined free throws. Denver plays Utah twice in the next three games and wins vs. the tanking Jazz will count just as much in the standings. In the current 5-1 run for Denver the Nuggets are allowing just over 117 points per game. Utah deservedly has a poor reputation as one of the worst defensive teams in the NBA, but the Jazz aren’t at the very bottom of the league in the recent last 10 games efficiency numbers while Denver has moved up to an average range in the recent splits. Denver’s typically top tier offense is also not even in the league’s top 10 for offensive efficiency in the past 10 games either. Expect some lulls in this game that could disrupt the pace, and this extremely high total may be difficult to reach. There have only been 13 games with a total of 248 or higher in the NBA this season and the ‘under’ is 9-4 in those games.