Free Pick | MLB | Friday | June 19

Nelly’s is 7-1 in our last eight completed MLB picks (we’ve had a rainout, a suspended game, and an off-pitcher game as well). Join us for Friday’s MLB 2-for-1 offer to add to a great recent run!

#969/970 OVER 8 Washington Nationals (Cavalli) at Tampa Bay Rays (Jax) 6:10 PM CT

Cade Cavalli and Griffin Jax both own an ERA below 4.00 but both have a much higher FIP. Cavalli has been a steady starter for the Nationals, but his road ERA is 4.28 and his ERA in June so far is 5.40 as things may be headed in the wrong direction. Jax has been inconsistent and he has pitched much worse in his home innings with a 4.86 ERA in St. Petersburg as he transitions to a starting role. Despite both teams owning winning records and a pace of great improvement from 2025, these are two of the worst bullpens in MLB. Washington has a 4.71 ERA while Tampa Bay has a 4.67 ERA for relievers on the season. The numbers are even worse for both units in the recent 10-game splits. Washington has been the ultimate ‘over’ team for the season with a great offense and shaky pitching, and the ‘over’ is 46-26-3 this season in Nationals games. Washington has scored six or more runs in six of the past eight games heading into this series, but the pitching staff has allowed at least three runs in nine of the past 10 games. Tampa Bay is only 7-15 since late May but the Rays have a great home record at 24-9 and the lineup has hit .266 with 5.2 runs per nine at home vs. right-handed pitching.