Free Pick | MLB | Sunday | June 21

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#977/978 OVER 9.5 Minnesota Twins (Paredes) at Arizona Diamondbacks (Cabrera) 2:15 PM CT

The Twins are a great ‘over’ team with the ‘over’ 50-27-1 this season as this is a formidable lineup but the pitching staff lacks depth and quality. Minnesota has a season bullpen ERA of 5.30 and in the past five games that ERA is 6.61 with a 1.59 WHIP. Even in a blowout yesterday the Twins needed to use five pitchers. The offense has scored four or more runs in eight straight games, but Minnesota pitching has allowed some big numbers in recent weeks as well. Mike Paredes has only appeared in four MLB games, and he has just a 6.0 K/9, allowing at least one run in all four appearances. While Arizona hasn’t formally announced it yet, this is expected to be the MLB debut of Jose Cabrera for Arizona and while he has good numbers this season in the minors, only three of his starts this season came in AAA as this is a big leap for the 24-year-old. Arizona has a 5.66 bullpen ERA in the past five games and the offense for the Diamondbacks has been capable at home with Arizona holding a 24-16 home record. In the past five games vs. right-handers Arizona has averaged 6.1 runs per nine and the pitching staff is in a tough spot for this third game in the series after Friday’s starter Mike Soroka left after just one inning due to injury. After a wild 24-run game that included a 10-run inning from the Twins an adjustment downward might be expected, but two young unproven starters plus two thin and struggling bullpens should be a recipe for another higher scoring game in Phoenix.