Free Pick | MLB | Thursday | July 2

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#905/906 OVER 12 Miami Marlins (Gusto) at Colorado Rockies (Lorenzen) 2:10 PM CT

Today will be Ryan Gusto’s first start at Coors Field and while the 27-year old has an impressive 3.72 FIP this season, he has been saddled with a .338 BABIP that leaves his ERA up to 5.06. Those numbers come from a small sample size of just over 21 innings, but last season at the MLB level Gusto finished with a 5.67 ERA in more than 101 innings with a similar BABIP as that elevated rate could be his norm. Gusto already has a 7.20 ERA in his road innings this season now heading into this notoriously difficult pitching park that has averaged 10.9 runs per game this season. In the first three games of this series there have been a combined 43 runs, and both teams have very productive recent splits vs. right-handed pitching. Well-traveled veteran Michael Lorenzen has a 6.83 ERA this season as he is on pace for a career-worst season in his first year with the Rockies. He has been an adequate starter in his road innings, but he hasn’t solved the conditions in Denver with an 8.20 ERA at home and opponents batting .364 against him. Colorado has a 9.68 bullpen ERA in the past five games as well. Adding to the normal favorable conditions in Denver is Thursday’s afternoon forecast of temperatures in the 90s with a steady wind pushing out to center field as reaching this high total looks very possible in this pairing of the 1993 expansion teams.