Free Pick | MLB | Tuesday | July 21

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#969 San Francisco Giants (Mahle) –105 over Kansas City Royals (Avila) 7:40 PM ET

The Giants have lost three games in a row, but San Francisco has scored at least three runs in eight straight games while the pitching staff has allowed four or fewer runs in seven of those eight games. Kansas City has won three of four out of the break, but the Royals have been outscored 29-19 so far on this homestand. Last night the Giants went hitless with runners in scoring position, to lose even with two home runs. Kansas City is 19 games below .500 this season and the bullpen owns a 5.43 ERA this season with a 1.54 WHIP. Luinder Avila has average results splitting starting and long relief roles, featuring a 5.08 ERA but he is a risk for allowing crooked numbers with a 5.4 BB/9. Avila has pitched well lately but four of his last five starts have been on the road and his ERA at Kauffman Stadium this season is 9.68. Tyler Mahle is rebuilding his career this season and while a 5.31 ERA doesn’t suggest promise, his FIP is nearly a run lower while he has a solid strikeout rate. Mahle has a 69 percent strand rate that is five percent below his career average but since returning to action in late June he has a 3.38 ERA with a 3.34 FIP. San Francisco has far stronger bullpen results for the season and in the recent splits when comparing these teams and after both teams used significant relief work last night that could be a bigger factor Tuesday. San Francisco at 42-58 isn’t an easy team to support but the Royals have been the worse team for the season and Mahle has been in good form lately.