Free Pick | MLB | Friday | July 24

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#903/904 OVER 8 Chicago Cubs (Boyd) at Pittsburgh Pirates (Jones) 5:40 PM CT

The Pirates have a poor season record vs. left-handed starters at 9-20 but in the past 10 games the Pirates have hit .291 with 7.9 runs per nine in those pairings. Pittsburgh is 3-3 since the All-Star Break but the Pirates have scored at least five runs four times and this is one of MLB’s top ‘over’ teams with the ‘over’ 59-42-2 this season. The Cubs are also 3-3 since the break while scoring six or more runs in four of those six games. Chicago has scored 6.5 runs per nine vs. right-handers in the past five games and in the last series between these teams in Pittsburgh in May there were a combined 39 runs over four games. Matthew Boyd is 6-1 in decisions, but he has a 4.15 ERA in 10 starts with some inconsistency. Jared Jones has a 4.05 ERA in 40 innings of work with strong strikeout potential but much worst splits at PNC Park with a 4.74 ERA. Both teams have mediocre recent bullpen numbers with a 1.53 WHIP for the Cubs and a 4.29 ERA for the Pirates over the past five games. The ‘over’ is 18-6 in Pittsburgh home games since late May and while a slight wind is pushing in for neutral conditions in Pittsburgh tonight, both offenses can have success. This is a pairing of two of MLB’s top four team wOBA squads for the season and for the month of July, and the ‘over’ looks attainable as the quality numbers for both starters have come in small sample sizes.