Free Pick | MLB | Thursday | Aug. 27

Nelly’s is 6-1 in our last seven and 17-7 in MLB since early August!

#903/904 OVER 7 Milwaukee Brewers (Misiorowski) at New York Mets (Manaea) 6:10 PM CT

Playing ‘over’ in a Jacob Misiorowski start carries some risk as the likely NL Cy Young winner can dominate any lineup. Misiorowski has received good run support as the Brewers have posted at least four runs behind him in 18 of his 24 starts. Misiorowski has not been allowed to pitch more than six innings in five of his last six starts as Milwaukee will use caution with its ace down the stretch. Milwaukee’s bullpen has been pitching well but Dustin May leaving yesterday’s game in the 1st inning will present some strain on the unit and the Brewers have had only two starts of six or more innings in the past eight games. The Mets are 13-9 in August as the offense has provided improved recent results and Citi Field will present a strong wind pushing out to left field in the forecast tonight. Sean Manaea had a great 2024 season for the Mets, but he hasn’t been able to contribute positively since in a consistent way, while his home splits are slightly worse than his road splits this season. Misiorowski’s shortest start of the season came vs. the Mets in July, and the Mets had nine hits last night despite plating just one run. With a total price 1.5 runs lower than yesterday’s game, the ‘over’ may have a good opportunity on Thursday evening in Queens.