Free Pick | MLB | Friday | Sep. 4

Nelly’s is 9-1 in our last 10 NL Baseball picks – we are also 2-0 so far in college football for an 8-1 run in college football going back to last season!

Don’t miss our picks this weekend:

#905/906 OVER 7.5 San Francisco Giants (Wilkinson) at New York Mets (McLean) 6:10 PM CT

The Giants have disappointed all season but the lineup has finally provided some punch in recent weeks. In the past 10 games San Francisco has posted 5.8 runs per nine vs. right-handed pitching. San Francisco pitching has a 4.73 road ERA this season leading to San Francisco being just 25-47 in road games on the season. Rookie Matt Wilkinson has a 4.63 ERA in three starts but more concerning is an extremely low 4.6 K/9, as his modest AAA strikeout rate was a red flag for the 23-year-old left-hander. In the past five games the Mets have beat their season production vs. left-handers and the San Francisco bullpen has a 4.87 ERA with a 1.53 WHIP in the past 10 games. Nolan McLean has had a nice season for the Mets in his first full season as an MLB starter, sporting a 3.06 ERA in 27 starts. He does have an elevated walk rate and his FIP is more than a half-run higher than his ERA. McLean has worse splits at home and while he had a very good August overall, three of his five starts were road starts in favorable pairings. New York’s bullpen has posted average recent results, and the Mets have allowed at least six runs in four of the past eight games. Some wind will push out towards right field tonight at Citi Field and this looks like an attainable total in this overlooked September game between NL teams out of the race.