Free Pick | NCAA | Thursday | Oct. 8

Nelly’s is on 5-0-2 MLB Playoff run – while 34-19 in baseball since early August!

Green Sheet Issue #16 is out – College Keys went 4-1 last week.

#312 Western Kentucky +1.5 over Missouri State 6:00 PM CT

Losing badly to Georgia and Indiana on the road can be forgiven but Western Kentucky lost by 21 at New Mexico State in the conference opener last week. The Hilltoppers finished with more yards in the final box score, but it wasn’t a competitive result. Missouri State lost by just 10 at SMU in the team’s last game with the Bears off last week for a possible advantage in the set-up ahead of this Thursday contest. The defense for Missouri State has allowed significant production however and Western Kentucky had 476 yards in Springfield last season with a late Bears score making the final a bit closer than the game deserved. Missouri State is in a coaching transition season while in just its second FBS season for a lot of moving parts in a short window of time for the program as a decline from last season’s surprise success seems inevitable. Western Kentucky hasn’t played a FBS home game yet this season and is 11-2 S/U and 10-3 ATS in home games since the start of the 2024 season. The Hilltoppers haven’t been a home underdog since September 2024, while going 4-0 S/U and ATS in the past four instances at home as a dog or a small favorite of fewer than 10 points. It hasn’t been pretty for Western Kentucky so far this season but Tyson Helton’s track record is solid and at a rock bottom valuation the Hilltoppers may still make some noise in Conference USA.