Free Pick | NCAA | Saturday | Oct. 10

Nelly’s went 3-1 last Saturday and we’ve won 4 of our last 5 football 2/3 offers!

#336 Toledo -18.5 over Buffalo 2:30 PM CT

Toledo has often been one of the MAC’s top contenders in recent years, but Buffalo has won four of the last five meetings straight up and against the spread, even though Toledo was favored in four of those games. That includes a 30-15 Buffalo win in 2024. Toledo’s first-year head coach Mike Jacobs has won four straight games since losing a competitive opener vs. the Big Ten, and the Rockets lead the MAC in scoring and total offense. Toledo opened conference play by running all over Ball State. The Rockets rushed for 352 yards, the team’s highest rushing total since 2023. CJ Miller and Connor Walendzak gave Toledo its first pair of 100-yard rushers in three years and Walendzak has scored a rushing touchdown in all five games. Quarterback John Alan Richter has been sacked only twice in 160 drop-backs, which shows how well this offensive line is playing. On defense, Andrew Zock had 2.5 tackles for loss, forced a fumble and recovered one. Buffalo doesn’t have an FBS win yet this season as its two wins came against FCS teams, and the Bulls lost by 13 to FIU and by 42 to Penn State. Last week the Bulls played one of the MAC favorites and competed well, falling 20-17 to Western Michigan with almost even yardage. The Bulls needed nearly a perfect game just to stay close at home however. Buffalo is 1-4 ATS, and its defense has one interception in 158 pass attempts and allowed 19 of 22 completions last week. Toledo should have a big edge on the ground, and it is 9-3 ATS as a favorite of 14 or more since 2023. Back on the road and drawing a homecoming crowd in the Glass Bowl, the Bulls are unlikely to repeat last week’s effort and Toledo should be suited to pull away for a convincing result.