Free Pick | NCAA | Tuesday | Nov. 10

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Green Sheet Issue #21 will be out tomorrow – top keys are 9-1 the past five weeks!

#667 Utah Tech +25.5 over Utah State 8:00 PM CT

This is a major transition season at Utah State as longtime Northern Iowa head coach Ben Jacobson takes over the program. Utah State has been a consistently successful program but keeping head coaches has been a challenge with Jacobson the sixth different head coach in Logan since 2017-18. This was a 29-win team last season but a clear change under Jacobson will be a slower pace of play with Jacobson’s Northern Iowa teams always among the slowest tempo teams in the nation. That may feel out of sync with scoring of 94 and 90 for the Aggies in the first two games of the season but Utah Tech provides an upgrade on the schedule. The Trailblazers may be a relatively new program at the Division I level but this was a 19-win team that went 11-7 in the WAC last season including posting three top 200 wins. That was a 12-win improvement over the previous season and this year’s team has returning contributors while Valparaiso transfer Mark Brown should be one of the top players in the move to the Big Sky. Losing by 40 to New Mexico may offer concern ahead of this matchup but that was a five-point game at halftime, and the Lobos has significant free throw and 3-point shooting success that won’t be the norm. Utah State also has a more prominent game later this week vs. UC San Diego for a significant non-conference test in a top 100 pairing. Utah State was a similarly priced favorite in the past two games vs. lesser teams while against New Mexico Utah Tech was only +23.5. This line feels adjusted a few points too many by overvaluing the final scores in the very small sample size at this point in the season.