Free MLB Selection | Thursday | May 11

Nelly’s is 6-3 the past four days in MLB action while we are on a 14-8 run in American League picks. Check out Thursday’s 7* Top Play in AL action! Now would be a great time to join for our discounted subscription for the rest of May!

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Free Pick Thursday: #954 Arizona Diamondbacks (Henry) +125 over San Francisco Giants (Cobb) 8:40 PM CT

Arizona doesn’t appear to be going away as a surprise National League playoff threat. The Diamondbacks own a solid 11-9 home record and have 12 wins vs. above .500 teams this season, tied with Atlanta for the most in the NL. The Diamondbacks are 31 runs superior to San Francisco in run differential and the Giants have only seven wins vs. above .500 teams. The season splits for San Francisco against left-handers are marginal, batting .232 with fewer than 3.0 runs per nine. Arizona has feasted on right-handed pitching this season batting .267 with 6.0 runs per nine. That should give Arizona an advantage even with home underdog pricing based on Alex Cobb being a more proven starter than Tommy Henry. With a 5.17 ERA and poor strikeout counts, Henry hasn’t looked like a starter that will stay in Arizona’s rotation, but he has had tough luck with a third of his base runners scoring. His worst of three starts this season was in Colorado for a tough venue for any young pitcher and while Henry was hit hard in that game, he completed five innings and got the win. Cobb has displayed excellent command this season, but his career low walk rate probably won’t last all season. Cobb has also stranded nearly 88 percent of his base runners for some good fortune. He has a FIP nearly a run higher than his ERA and two thirds of his innings have come at home where he owns a 1.35 ERA. This will be a tougher challenge on the road and Cobb owns a career ERA of 6.10 vs. Arizona with an 8.36 ERA at Chase Field.