Free Pick | MLB | Friday | June 27

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#918 Boston Red Sox (Bello) -110 over Toronto Blue Jays (Berrios) 6:10 PM CT

Brayan Bello has a FIP well above his ERA for the season, but he is quietly on an excellent run of results with a 3.46 FIP and a 2.65 ERA over his last six starts. Bello has turned in four consecutive quality starts, including three in a row at Fenway Park. Boston is back at home after a nine-game road trip that ended with five straight losses on the west coast but the Red Sox had yesterday off and the bullpen performed well on the road trip despite the poor results, posting a 3.09 ERA in the past 10 games. Toronto posted a 6-0 win yesterday in Cleveland and the bullpen mostly received the day off. Cleveland went 0-7 with runners in scoring position yesterday as Toronto caught some breaks with four errors from the Guardians contributing to four runs. The Blue Jays are only 18-21 in road games and Jose Berrios has a 4.27 FIP hovering over his 3.51 ERA. Berrios has just a 7.7 K/9 this season and his 3.4 BB/9 would be one of the highest averages of his career. As has been the case most of his career, Berrios has been erratic in his road innings including allowing six runs in his last road outing. Toronto has a 4.37 ERA with a 1.49 WHIP from its bullpen in the past 10 games and the unit had significant workloads Tuesday and Wednesday in the last series while not getting the day off the Red Sox enjoyed. The Blue Jays are 13-9 in June but only +8 in scoring and Toronto is only 5-7 since June 13, while on the season Boston has a slightly better scoring differential than Toronto despite being four games below the Blue Jays in the standings. The Rafael Devers trade has painted the Red Sox as a team that is moving on from trying to contend this season, but Boston is only two games out of the final wild card position in the AL and Berrios has a 4.53 ERA in nine career starts at Fenway Park.