Free Pick | MLB | Friday | Sep. 22

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Nelly’s Baseball is 19-11 in our last 30 to continue a nice run since June on the diamond.

#965 Toronto Blue Jays (Bassitt) +135 over Tampa Bay Rays (Glasnow) 5:40 PM CT

This is an appealing price for the potential high ceiling of Chris Bassitt on the mound for the Blue Jays. With a 3.78 ERA and 14 wins Bassitt has turned in a good season but he had the occasional tough start. He also has eight scoreless outings of six innings or longer this season, however, to rival any pitcher in baseball. The Rays are just 1.5 games out of the AL East lead, but this is an urgent time for the Blue Jays currently the #2 AL Wild Card but with only a half-game lead over Texas and Seattle, as one of those three teams (or Houston) will be left out. Gerrit Cole helped end Toronto’s five-game winning streak last night, but the Blue Jays were able to preserve their top bullpen options for the most part with only Tim Mayza making 13 pitches. Toronto has a 1.83 bullpen ERA in the past five games while the Blue Jays have been much more productive in the recent splits vs. right-handers, scoring 2.0 more runs per nine than Tampa Bay in the past five games. Tyler Glasnow has a 12.0 K/9 this season but it has been an abbreviated 19-start season and he has struggled in four of his last six starts for a 4.63 ERA since mid-August. Glasnow has good numbers at home, but Toronto has outscored Tampa Bay 42-33 this season in the head-to-head meetings. Bassitt has a 2.93 ERA in his career at Tropicana Field and this price will rival the largest of the season in a Bassitt start, priced at +130 at Dodger Stadium in July while also priced around +130 against Texas and Atlanta early in the season.