Free Pick | MLB | Friday | Sep. 5

Nelly’s is on a 32-15 run in MLB picks since mid-July – including 18-9 in our last 27!

Get tonight’s MLB side play in NL action or play through the World Series!

Nelly’s went 2-0 in college football last Saturday as well!

#930 Arizona Diamondbacks (Rodriguez) +115 over Boston Red Sox (Tolle) 8:40 PM CT

Payton Tolle made a nice MLB debut with eight strikeouts in a no decision last Friday. Tolle is just 22 years old and was a 2nd round pick just last season in 2024. He has delivered good numbers in the minors this season but most of his innings were in high A-ball, making just three starts at AAA Worcester where his strikeout rate fell dramatically. With the rosters expanded in September, Alex Cora wants to see what Tolle might offer but Boston needs to confirm a playoff spot first. Boston is just 14-12 since August 6 with the offense struggling and now playing without Roman Anthony. Boston scored 11 runs on Tuesday but 12 times in the past 20 games the Red Sox have failed to top three runs. Wilyer Abreu also remains on the IL and Boston has averaged only 3.9 runs per nine vs. left-handers in the past 10 games. In contrast Arizona is averaging 7.3 runs per nine vs. southpaws in that stretch. The Diamondbacks have been a disappointment overall this season, but the team is still playing hard and looking to finish above .500 in the final weeks, currently 70-71 for the season and technically only 5.5 games out of a wild card spot. Arizona had a tough month of July that prompted several deadline deals, but the Diamondbacks are 19-13 since August 1 including a current 6-2 run winning despite facing quality teams in that are in the playoff picture. Eduardo Rodriguez has pitched better than his 5.40 ERA as his FIP is nearly a full run lower. He has been saddled with a .345 BABIP this season but his numbers have improved since the All-Star Break. Rodriguez started his career with Boston as this will be a meaningful opportunity and Arizona has stronger recent bullpen splits as well, posting a 2.89 ERA with a 1.18 WHIP in the past 10 games. Boston doesn’t have closer Jordan Hicks right now and Boston pitching allowed 19 runs in the last series in Cleveland before an off day Thursday. Boston did play well in the last road trip but those were nearby games on the east coast, while the Red Sox are 2-7 in the past three west coast series.