Free Pick | MLB | Monday | Aug. 25

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#968 Chicago White Sox (Smith) +115 over Kansas City Royals (Cameron) 6:40 PM CT

In danger of getting swept in Detroit at a key juncture in the wild card race the Royals came through with a 10-8 win on Sunday. The bullpen used nearly everyone to hold on with five relievers throwing for Kansas City including a long outing from set-up man Lucas Erceg. Kansas City is only 31-34 in road games this season as they head to Chicago three games out of the final wild card position in the final week of August. The Royals are 8-2 vs. Chicago this season as this should be an appealing opportunity, but Kansas City is 7-0 hosting Chicago and just 1-2 at Rate Field this season. Chicago’s offense posted huge numbers in the past two series, scoring a combined 45 runs in the past six games even while going just 3-3. The White Sox have received at least five innings from eight of its last 10 starters to keep the bullpen in good shape and the 8-0 win yesterday allowed the top relief options for Chicago to rest. Rookie Shane Smith is just 3-7 for Chicago but in 107 innings he has a capable 4.12 ERA and since the All-Star Break his ERA is 3.54 with a 9.3 K/9. Smith has a 3.80 ERA at Rate Field and he pitched well despite taking a loss in Kansas City in May. Noah Cameron has a 2.53 ERA to complete this rookie pairing but his FIP is 3.88 and his season K/9 is just 7.2. Chicago has superior season splits vs. left-handed pitching and is only five games below .500 vs. left-handed starters compared with being 31 games below .500 vs. right-handers. The Royals meanwhile are three games below .500 vs. right-handers while performing well vs. left-handers with both teams having significant OPS boosts in their preferred draws which will favor Chicago on Monday. The bullpen numbers for these teams in the season and recent splits are much closer than you’d expect compared to the reputations of these pitching staffs. Since the All-Star Break Kansas City has lost four of its six road series even dropping series vs. Miami and Minnesota and this could be a fragile spot for the pitching staff with several short recent starting efforts extending the bullpen.