Free Pick | MLB | Monday | May 18

Nelly’s has won three in a row in MLB – get tonight’s selection:

#970 Kansas City Royals (Lugo) +105 over Boston Red Sox (Gray) 6:40 PM CT

The Royals have been an awful road team and an awful team vs. left-handed pitching in a disappointing start to the 2026 season. Kansas City is 18-17 vs. right-handed starters and 13-10 at home, however. The bullpen for the Royals has been in excellent form in the last week, including a 1.65 ERA in the past five games. Boston is facing a second straight road series after losing two of three in Atlanta and the Red Sox have been held to three or fewer runs in each of the past eight games even while managing to win three low-scoring games in that run. Sonny Gray is a quality starter, but his K/9 is 5.6 right now would be by far a career-worst. He currently has a FIP a full run higher than his ERA as this hasn’t looked like Gray in his best form so far in 2026. Seth Lugo has a 2.68 FIP this season despite a 1-3 record as he has not had the good fortune he has enjoyed in a career resurgence the past few seasons. He has kept the ball in the ballpark this season but so far in 2026 his BABIP is .355 for an extreme contrast to his .287 BABIP. Expect Lugo to find better fortune in his upcoming run of starts and the Royals to be in a good position for a win to open this series Monday.