Free Pick | MLB | Tuesday | May 19

Nelly’s is 3-1 in our last four MLB picks – we also won our Game 1 pick in the NBA last night!

#921/922 UNDER 7.5 Boston Red Sox (Suarez) at Kansas City Royals (Falter) 6:40 PM CT

Boston won 3-1 last night to open in this series in a game with only 15 combined hits and only 12 combined at-bats with runners in scoring position. Neither of these teams has enjoyed a successful start to the season with Boston 20-27 and the Royals 20-28 and offense can be blamed with both teams in MLB’s bottom 10 for team wOBA at this point in the season, while the Red Sox have hit the second fewest home runs in baseball at this point. Tonight’s pitching matchup is a lefty/lefty pairing, and the Royals are 2-10 this season vs. left-handed starters while batting .223. Over the past five games the Royals have hit .200 with 1.5 runs per nine vs. lefties, while Boston has hit .219 with just 1.0 run per nine vs. lefties. Both teams have sharp recent bullpen numbers with a 1.84 ERA from the Red Sox with a 0.89 WHIP in the past five games while Kansas City’s bullpen has struggled most of the season, the Royals have a 1.65 ERA in the past five games from relievers. Ranger Suarez has done his part as a high-profile addition to the Boston pitching staff. Suarez has continued the success he had in Philadelphia and posted a 2.44 ERA in eight starts with low home run and walk rates. Bailey Falter has a 10.13 ERA this season, but he has only made three appearances out of the bullpen. Falter was a capable starter the past two years mostly with Pittsburgh and facing a struggling Boston lineup should allow for a good opportunity to improve his numbers. Boston is 4-5 in the past nine games but the Red Sox have failed to score more than three runs in any of those games. Kansas City has also been held to five or fewer runs in 13 consecutive games.