Free Pick | MLB | Wednesday | May 20

Nelly’s is 4-1 in our last five in MLB – plus a 2-0 start in the NBA Conference Finals!

#966 Tampa Bay Rays (Undecided) -120 over Baltimore Orioles (Baz) 12:10 PM CT

Sweeps in division series can be tough to come by but one can’t ignore an 18-5 home record for the Rays while Tampa Bay rides a staggering 20-4 run overall since April 22. The only two losses in the past nine games were extra-innings results and Tampa Bay has crushed right-handed pitching lately, batting .303 with 7.0 runs per nine over the past five games. Both teams had a substantial bullpen workload last night in a 4-1 win for the Rays and the Orioles own 11.02 ERA with a 2.02 WHIP from relievers in the past five games. The pitching plan for the Rays was announced late for this game, and while Steven Matz starting off the IL was initially speculated, it appears that Jesse Scholtens will instead get the start. Scholtens has pitched in starting and long relief roles this season with steady results. The Tampa Bay bullpen hasn’t been a strong suit but it has been stronger than the Orioles relief pitching. Shane Baz has not been able to take a step forward in his career in his move to Baltimore, after pitching four seasons while showing some promise with the Rays. Baz has a 5.26 ERA in nine starts with just one win, while his K/9 and BB/9 rates at this point in the season would both be a career worst. Baz will be comfortable in this ballpark, but Baltimore is just 9-16 in road games this season and the lineup has scored three or fewer runs in seven of the past 10 games.