Free Pick | MLB | Saturday | Sep. 6

#980 Arizona Diamondbacks (Pfaadt) +105 over Boston Red Sox (Giolito) 7:10 PM CT

Lucas Giolito is 10-2, his ERA of 3.38 is overshadowed by a 4.18 FIP. His K/9 is only 7.5 but he has a much lower BABIP and a much higher strand rate than his results in 2022 and 2023. The Boston bullpen pitched five innings in last night’s 10-5 loss and while the Red Sox are still in a solid wild card position in the American League race, the pitching staff is struggling with 29 runs allowed in the first four games of September. Boston is now 2-8 in its last 10 games on the west coast and Arizona is back up to .500 with three wins in a row, still with a pulse in the NL wild card race sitting 5.5 games behind the Mets. Arizona is 20-12 since August 2 and the Diamondbacks have scored five or more runs in 22 of those 32 games as this is still a very capable lineup. Brandon Pfaadt has a 5.33 ERA, but his FIP is similar to Giolito’s FIP and he does have 12 wins for Arizona with a low walk rate. Pfaadt has not pitched well in his road innings, but he has a 3.66 ERA at home and since the All-Star Break all his home starts have featured at least five innings with three or fewer runs allowed with Arizona 4-1 in those starts. Arizona’s bullpen has good recent splits with a 3.63 ERA in the past 10 games, and the Diamondbacks are 10-3 in home games since early August. Boston’s lineup has been weakened with recent injuries while closer Jordan Hicks was also just placed on the IL as the Red Sox are offering some concerning signs with several tough series still ahead to confirm a playoff spot.