Free Pick | MLB | Sunday | April 28

Nelly’s is 6-1 in the past seven days of MLB picks – including 6-0 on sides! Don’t miss our Sunday afternoon selection:

#951 Washington Nationals (Corbin) +125 over Miami Marlins (Weathers) 12:40 PM CT

Washington and Miami are expected to be two of the worst teams in the NL this season and while Miami has lived down to that billing with a 6-22 start including going 2-13 at home, Washington is competing well with a 12-14 record and eight road wins, including wins the past two days by a combined score of 14-5. Patrick Corbin had a disastrous run in 2021 and 2022 but has been a profitable pitcher since, as the market is so heavily skewed against him. There is a case to be made that he remains one of the worst MLB starters, but he did have a scoreless outing vs. the Dodgers in his last start. Home runs are often the downfall for Corbin, but Miami has only 21 home runs this season, third fewest in MLB and the Marlins are batting .199 with 2.4 runs per nine vs. left-handers this season. The Marlins are also 1-12 this season vs. left-handed starters. Ryan Weathers has a 3.16 ERA for a solid run through five starts but he has a 4.2 BB/9 and a 4.64 FIP as his numbers could start to shift towards last season’s line when he finished with a 6.55 ERA. Weathers is 7-17 in career decisions with a 5.50 ERA as his track record isn’t any better than Corbin’s in recent years. Washington has a 3.80 ERA from its bullpen as well and a Miami squad that has scored eight runs combined in the past five games isn’t a great threat to avoid the sweep Sunday, even if Corbin is often a favorable matchup.