Free Pick | MLB | Thursday | April 25

Nelly’s is on a 4-0 MLB run the past four days – play our afternoon selection Thursday or consider an extended subscription:

Nelly’s is also on a 17-9 NBA run since mid-March!

#920 Chicago Cubs (Assad) +110 over Houston Astros (Verlander) 1:20 PM CT

The Cubs held on for a second straight win vs. Houston last night. Justin Verlander lurks as a formidable opponent Thursday afternoon, but this is just the second start of the season for the 3-time Cy Young winner. His first start was a success, but he faced Washington and had only four strikeouts in six innings. Houston has a 5.04 bullpen ERA this season and injuries have weakened the pitching depth for the team. Both Ryan Pressly and Rafael Montero pitched last night as well for a team that has a shocking 7-18 record this season. Javier Assad has a 2.11 ERA in four starts this season for the Cubs, looking to hold on to a starting spot after solid results last season in both starting and relief roles. Assad has a career ERA of 2.94 in nearly 170 innings even if he doesn’t have big strikeout numbers. On the season the Cubs have scored 5.3 runs per nine vs. right-handers compared to just 3.6 runs per nine vs. right-handers for Houston and in the past five games the Astros have averaged just 1.9 runs per nine. Chicago has a 2.45 bullpen ERA in the past 10 games and Houston has failed to top four runs in seven of the past eight games. Chicago pitching has allowed three or fewer runs in six of the past seven games and the offense has remained productive even with two key bats now on the IL. Chicago is catching a home underdog price due to Verlander pitching even while outscoring Houston 11-5 the past two days.