Free Pick | MLB | Sunday | July 23

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#924 Cleveland Guardians (Curry) +125 over Philadelphia Phillies (Nola) 12:40 PM CT
Nelly’s has won backing Cleveland the past two days as the Guardians have held on for narrow one-run wins vs. Philadelphia. Sweeping the Phillies sounds like a tall order, but Cleveland is catching an even greater underdog price on Sunday. Xzavion Curry has nice numbers this season, but he has been a reliever until making a start on Monday, extended to three innings for just the fourth time this season. Curry will be more than an opener but not likely to pitch more than three innings Sunday. The recent bullpen numbers for Cleveland are worse than the season numbers for the Guardians even on a 4-1 run in the past five games with only 13 runs allowed. A great starting performance yesterday helped but Emmanuel Clase has now pitched in back-to-back games for a late-inning concern. Philadelphia has gone cold at the plate however with only eight runs scored on the current four-game slide. The Phillies are batting only .194 in the past five games and just .225 in the past 10 games compared to the Guardians hitting .288 for one of the better offensive stretches of the season for Cleveland. Aaron Nola commands respect on the mound for the Phillies but he is batting through his worst MLB season. His 4.19 FIP is on pace to be a career worst while his 9.0 K/9 is his worst since his 13 starts as a rookie in 2015. His walk rate is up from the past two seasons and his HR/9 is up to 1.50, the worst of his career. In 15 of 20 starts Nola has allowed three or more runs this season as a very average option despite his past success and name recognition garnering a solid road favorite number Sunday.